PROSPECTIVE EXPORT MARKETS FOR UZBEKISTAN: COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF TRADE BARRIERS AND POTENTIAL DEMAND IN SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST ASIA

Abstract

The article examines the diversification of Uzbekistan's export destinations outside the CIS and the EU using the markets of South and Southeast Asia as an example. The purpose of the study is to identify the most promising country regions taking into account trade barriers and import demand potential. The following data sources were used: WITS (World Bank), UN COMTRADE, WDI and IMF, as well as OEC and Trading Economics resources; to assess the priority, the principal component analysis (PCA) was used, which allowed integrating indicators of market size (GDP and population), import volume, economic growth rates and average tariff rates.

The analysis showed that India and Bangladesh have the highest priority due to a combination of large import volumes and acceptable tariff barriers, followed by Indonesia and Vietnam. For each country, the economic structure, average and specific tariffs, and key non-tariff restrictions are described in detail. The conclusions substantiate the recommendation to focus export efforts on agricultural products and light industry for India and Bangladesh, as well as to more actively use GSP mechanisms and regional agreements to reduce trade barriers. The need to adapt products to the technical and sanitary standards of partners and improve logistics chains in Southeast Asia is also emphasized.